Markets

Prediction markets across venues

Market Data

Market Motion indexes prediction markets from multiple venues and links them to entities. This gives you:

• Cross-venue coverage: Polymarket, Kalshi, and more
• Entity connections: Which entities affect which markets
• Structured data: Prices, volumes, outcomes

Supported Venues

Venue	Type	Coverage
Polymarket	Crypto/Web3	Politics, Sports, Crypto, Entertainment
Kalshi	CFTC-regulated	Politics, Economics, Weather, Sports

Market Structure

{
  "id": "market-uuid",
  "externalId": "polymarket-condition-id",
  "title": "Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl LIX?",
  "venue": "polymarket",
  "category": "sports",
  "subcategory": "nfl",
  "active": true,
  "outcomes": [
    { "label": "Yes", "price": 0.35 },
    { "label": "No", "price": 0.65 }
  ],
  "volume": 1500000,
  "liquidity": 250000,
  "endDate": "2025-02-09T23:59:59Z"
}

Entity-Market Links

Markets connect to entities through market exposures:

{
  "role": "subject",
  "market": {
    "id": "market-id",
    "title": "Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX",
    "venue": "polymarket"
  },
  "outcome": {
    "label": "Yes"
  }
}

Exposure Roles

Role	Description	Example
subject	Market is directly about this entity	”Will Biden win?” for Biden
participant	Entity participates in market event	Team in a game market
affected	Entity is indirectly affected	Stadium for a game market

Fetching Markets

List Markets

GET /api/markets/predictions?venue=polymarket&category=sports&limit=20

Parameters:

• venue: polymarket, kalshi
• category: politics, sports, crypto, finance
• subcategory: nfl, presidential, etc.
• active: true/false
• limit, offset: pagination

Search Markets

GET /api/markets/search?q=super%20bowl&venue=polymarket

Get Categories

GET /api/markets/predictions/categories

Returns category breakdown with counts.

Markets for an Entity

The most powerful query: get all markets affecting an entity.

GET /api/entities/patrick-mahomes

The marketExposures array contains all relevant markets:

{
  "entity": {
    "slug": "patrick-mahomes",
    "marketExposures": [
      {
        "role": "subject",
        "market": { "title": "Mahomes MVP", "venue": "polymarket" }
      },
      {
        "role": "participant",
        "market": { "title": "Chiefs vs Ravens", "venue": "kalshi" }
      }
    ]
  }
}

Cross-Venue Arbitrage

Find the same market across venues:

// Search both venues
const [polymarket, kalshi] = await Promise.all([
  fetch('/api/markets/search?q=chiefs%20super%20bowl&venue=polymarket'),
  fetch('/api/markets/search?q=chiefs%20super%20bowl&venue=kalshi')
]);

// Compare prices for arbitrage
const polyPrice = polymarket.markets[0].outcomes[0].price;
const kalshiPrice = kalshi.markets[0].outcomes[0].price;

if (Math.abs(polyPrice - kalshiPrice) > 0.03) {
  console.log('Potential arbitrage opportunity!');
}

Market Categories

Markets are categorized using AI classification:

politics/
  ├── presidential/
  ├── congress/
  └── international/
sports/
  ├── nfl/
  ├── nba/
  └── soccer/
crypto/
  ├── prices/
  ├── launches/
  └── regulation/
finance/
  ├── fed/
  ├── inflation/
  └── earnings/

Real-Time Data

Market prices are cached and updated periodically. For real-time trading, use venue APIs directly. Market Motion is optimized for entity context, not tick data.

Use Market Motion to:

1. Discover which markets relate to an entity
2. Understand entity relationships affecting markets
3. Monitor attribute changes that signal market moves

Then execute trades directly on Polymarket or Kalshi.